I had a shaky opening week, going 4-6 against the spread. The good: nailing my upset special with UNLV rolling over Houston. The bad: picking Clemson to keep it somewhat close against Georgia. The ugly: picking LSU to cover against USC. Here are this week’s guesses.
(All point spreads come from BetMGM, click here for live odds. All kickoff times ET and on Saturday unless otherwise noted.)
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BYU at SMU (-11.5), 7 p.m. Friday, ESPN2
Preston Stone has some weapons that should give the Cougars some trouble in RJ Maryland and Brashard Smith. But BYU has some firepower, too. QB Jake Retzlaff seems much improved from his debut season, though it’s tough to read too much into a blowout win over FCS Southern Illinois. He’s showed off a very live arm and the Cougars’ skill talent is good.
SMU 31, BYU 23
Pick: BYU +11.5
Duke at Northwestern (-2.5), 9 p.m. Friday, FS1
David Braun’s defense is wired to prevent big plays and that’s something the new Duke offense is looking for. The Wildcats had a nice win bottling up a pretty good Miami (Ohio) team last week. The hunch here is that QB Mike Wright and Northwestern will eke out another tight one.
Northwestern, 17, Duke 13
Pick: Northwestern -2.5
Arkansas at Oklahoma State (-7.5), Noon, ABC
After a rough opening week for the SEC against the rest of Power 4, Week 2 should go a lot better. But this matchup with the Cowboys’ experience doesn’t bode well for the Hogs. Expect Arkansas QB Taylen Green to give the Cowboys some issues with his wheels but Oklahoma State’s offense will be too much for Arkansas.
Oklahoma State 35, Arkansas 24
Pick: Oklahoma State -7.5
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Texas (-7.5) at Michigan, Noon, Fox
As talented as the Wolverines’ defense is, Texas has a very good O-line, an experienced QB and a deep collection of receivers to do damage. Michigan’s offense feels very underwhelming as it tries to replace so many key guys from the national title team. Michigan will need a huge game from Donovan Edwards to provide a much-needed spark.
Texas 24, Michigan 13
Pick: Texas -7.5
Baylor at Utah (-14.5), 3:30 p.m., Fox
The Utes have a tough home-field atmosphere for anyone to visit. They also have the linebackers and system to hold up well against speedy Baylor quarterback Dequan Finn, who will need to take much better care of the ball than he did last week.
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Utah 34, Baylor 14
Pick: Utah -14.5
Cal at Auburn (-13.5), 3:30 p.m., ESPN2
Jaydn Ott is one of the best backs in the country, but he got banged up last week in Cal’s win and limped off the field. The Bears need a fully functional Ott for this long trip into SEC country. Payton Thorne has a ton of experience and some big-time talent to lean on led by freshman receiver Cam Coleman, who has a chance to be special.
Auburn 31, Cal 13
Pick: Auburn -13.5
Iowa State at Iowa (-3), 3:30 p.m., CBS
Kirk Ferentz’s team has won seven of the last eight meetings in this series, but Iowa State won the last time the game was played in Iowa City. I was set to pick the Cyclones, who are a much better, more seasoned team than they were a year ago when these teams last met — Iowa won, 20-13 — but have heard they’re pretty banged up coming into this one and will go against my hunch and pick Iowa.
Iowa 17, Iowa State 10
Pick: Iowa -3
Colorado at Nebraska (-7.5), 7:30 p.m., NBC
I’m surprised the spread is as big as it is. The Buffs have a terrific QB in Shedeur Sanders and a lot of playmakers outside. That’ll be a big challenge for what should be a pretty solid Nebraska defense. Ultimately, the hunch here is that Dylan Raiola shines on the big stage in his first big test at Nebraska against a Colorado defense still trying to settle in.
Nebraska 31, Colorado 28
Pick: Colorado +7.5
Tennessee (-7.5) at NC State, 7:30 p.m., ABC
The Wolfpack have an experienced and talented offense. Can QB Grayson McCall get UT on its heels? Jordan Waters, NC State’s transfer running back, is a stud. He will be a factor in keeping this one tight. As good as DC Tony Gibson is, the Vols are a little too explosive for NC State to take down.
Tennessee 23, NC State 20
Pick: NC State +7.5
Boise State at Oregon (-19.5), 10 p.m., Peaco*ck
The Ducks sputtered last week against a scrappy Idaho team. Their interior O-line struggled, but I expect them to be sharper this week and for quarterback Dillon Gabriel to hit on more big plays against the Broncos. Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty is a fantastic back who ran wild last week. Don’t expect Oregon to shut him down, but they’re good enough to at least slow him down.
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Oregon 45, Boise State 17
Pick: Oregon -19.5
Upset Special: Georgia Southern (-1.5) at Nevada, 7 p.m., TruTV
Jeff Choate’s team almost beat SMU in his first game, then they had a nice win across the country at Troy last week. The Wolf Pack will cause some problems for a Georgia Southern defense that just allowed 371 rushing yards and 651 total yards against Boise State before making this long road trip.
Nevada 27, Georgia Southern 20
Pick: Nevada +1.5
(Photo of Dylan Raiola: Dylan Widger / USA Today)
Bruce Feldman is the National College Football Insider for The Athletic. One of the sport’s leading voices, he also is a sideline reporter for FOX College Football. Bruce has covered college football nationally for more than 20 years and is the author of numerous books on the topic, including "Swing Your Sword: Leading The Charge in Football and Life" with Mike Leach and most recently "The QB: The Making of Modern Quarterbacks." Follow Bruce on Twitter @BruceFeldmanCFB
